Oscar Futures
Who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Oscar Futures
Who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Every week between now and January 23, 2024, when the winners of the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscars race. In our Oscar Futures column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
The Holdovers
Before Downsizing, Alexander Payne was on one of Oscar’s all-time hot streaks. He attempts to get back on track with this retro-hued boarding-school dramedy, which tones down the misanthropy that popped up in his previous work. “Don’t let the wintry backdrop fool you,” says The A.V. Club. “The Holdovers is a warm honeyed cider of a film.” That warmth will be the key to the film’s awards fortunes: This is the kind of agreeable contender that should play well on the preferential ballot.
Priscilla
Is Sofia Coppola’s latest destined to wind up the Infamous to Elvis’s Capote? As the Priscilla Presley biopic opens in limited release, critics have been warmer than they were to Baz Luhrmann’s maximalist glitter-fest, though many have been measured in their praise: At Venice, Richard Lawson called it “sensitive if slight.” Like much of Coppola’s work, Priscilla is a humane portrayal of life inside the celebrity bubble, but given the choice of naturalism versus bombast, Oscar voters may prefer the latter.
Current Predix
Anatomy of a Fall, American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Best Director
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Payne’s human-scale dramas don’t scream “directing nominee,” but he’s been recognized in this category three times, most recently for Nebraska. That’s due in part to what Wesley Morris calls his “emotional finesse. Whatever it is studio technicians do seated at those knobby soundboards, Payne achieves with acting and characterization.” Have the directing branch’s tastes changed in the decade since Payne last got nominated, or can this bittersweet little movie charm its way in against bigger, bolder efforts?
Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
Priscilla has a strike waiver, which means the actors can promote it, but Coppola has been on a media whirlwind anyway. Smart of A24 to recognize who’s the real draw here, even if her post–Lost in Translation efforts haven’t been able to score a cup of coffee with the Academy.
Current Predix
Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Look up rumpled in the dictionary and you’ll see a photo of Giamatti in The Holdovers, playing a curmudgeonly history teacher with a glass eye and a drinking problem. “Giamatti doesn’t let the character’s quirks overwhelm his choices — this man’s pathos runs deep,” writes Lindsey Bahr. Reuniting with Payne for the first time since Sideways, Giamatti could be rewarded by voters who want to make up for snubbing him 20 years ago. (Amazingly, he’s only been nominated once, for Cinderella Man.) Though with American Fiction’s Jeffrey Wright also in the race, is there room for two comedic performances?
Michael Fassbender, The Killer
As Netflix puts The Killer out in a handful of theaters, consensus is that it’s David Fincher in genre mode, far from the Academy-friendly terrain of Mank or The Social Network. Critics are calling the hitman thriller weirdly funny, though the tonal mix isn’t working for everyone. “Leaning further into the comedy might have worked,” says our own Bilge Ebiri. “But Fassbender’s submerged performance and Fincher’s controlled direction are a bit too cool to be deadpan.”
Current Predix
Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Spaeny was a surprise Best Actress winner at Venice, and it’s worth noting that four of the past five women to receive that award have gone on to Oscar nominations. She’s subtly excellent in the film, believably aging from 14 to 28 with only her voice and her posture. Still, the film’s version of Priscilla Presley is a woman whose strength lies in her passivity. Though Spaeny has the advantage of being able to campaign, the 25-year-old will be up against performances with a lot more oomph.
Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
What are the Gotham Awards good for? The season’s first trophies are determined by a small, unrepresentative body of New Yorkers, some of whom are my co-workers. Still, they matter for performers like Taylor, who was widely acclaimed for her turn as a desperate mother in this Sundance award winner when it hit theaters in March. (It’s “a sort that the Oscars rarely notice,” Vulture’s Alison Willmore wrote at the time. “But there’s a majesty to the character, and to how intensely Taylor inhabits her.”) The multi-hyphenate’s Lead Performance nod at this week’s Gotham nominations won’t instantly catapult her to the top of GoldDerby, but it could earn her a fresh look.
Current Predix
Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Sessa, a newcomer found while scouting prep schools, more than holds his own against Giamatti — their chemistry powers the film. In another year, I’d say he had a good shot at recognition, but this year’s Supporting Actor race is stacked with established A-list talent. Sessa will have to hope his film’s hold over voters is strong enough to earn him some coattail attention.
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
The Gothams scrapped its budget limit this year, though major contenders like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon bowed out anyway to let the tiny indies shine. Barbie decided to submit, and so the biggest movie of the year was rewarded with a Supporting Performance nomination. You can’t blame the jury for going outside their remit: This is a very fun performance that’s very fun to vote for. For Gosling, that could be Kenough.
Current Predix
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
As good as Giamatti and Sessa are, it’s Randolph who breaks your heart in The Holdovers. Best known for stealing scenes in Dolemite Is My Name and The Idol, here she plays the school’s cook, a mother mourning the loss of her son. “I’m not going to sit here and overthink the irony (or inevitability, perhaps) that this is the best part Randolph has ever had,” writes Morris. The role is almost stereotypically Academy-friendly, and I can imagine some side-eyes if it’s recognized in a year when no Black women make it into Best Actress. But Randolph is that good. She deserves to be the early front-runner.
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
I’ll have more on All of Us Strangers after I see it, but the magical-realist romance had a good week, leading the Gothams in total nominations. Foy was the supporting player who got nominated alongside star Andrew Scott rather than the movie’s bunch of boys. Lord knows there are seats to be had in this category, so consider her one to watch.
Current Predix
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Julianne Moore, May December; Rosamund Pike, Saltburn; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
More From This Series
- The Critics Have Spoken, and Oppenheimer Is the Name on Their Lips
- Oscar Futures: Our Final Predictions for the Nominees
- Oscar Futures: Who Will Be Our Nomination-Morning Surprise?
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